THE SELF-COUP IN THE SMOKERS’ CORNER

z”Self-coup” is an intriguing word in political science. When an elected president or prime minister attempts to maintain or increase their authority by using extra-constitutional or unconstitutional methods and encouraging their followers to cause mayhem in the streets, it is known as a self-coup.

They gain support from governmental institutions and civil society, which they subsequently utilize to carry out a coup d’état. Advocates are urged to embrace so-called “incivism.” Incivism is simply defined as hostility toward the government and state institutions.

The January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol building in Washington, DC, by Donald Trump’s followers is one of the most obvious recent instances of a self-coup attempt, according to an essay written by American political scientist David Pion-Berlin in April 2022. When Trump lost the presidency in the November 2020 election, he refused to recognize the outcome.

Trump urged his followers to reject the election results just days before Joe Biden, the victor, was scheduled to take office as the next US president. Hundreds of his fans attacked the Capitol building after he gave an angry speech. Apart from, of course, civilian far-right organizations, it is also highly certain that Trump thought he could garner support from certain members of the military and the courts. Pion-Berlin asserts that self-coups are ineffective if the military does not lend its assistance.

Heads of state, such as Donald Trump and

Yoon Suk Yeol have undertaken’self-coups’ in

an attempt to hold on to power. But may the

May 9, 2023, acts of violence in Pakistan

also be regarded as an attempt at a’self-coup’?

There were hundreds of Trump fans, mostly from radical-right groups, who demonstrated incivility by attacking the Capitol, a significant representation of American democracy. However, the US military declined to provide any assistance. In fact, the military ordered the mobilization of the National Guard.

This was a tense standoff, though, as some observers feared that the deployed Guards may be enticed to back Trump, as numerous studies had shown that the US military had robust right-wing networks. However, nothing similar occurred.

Between the 1850s and 2021, at least 22 successful self-coups occurred in different nations. The current head of state or government was successful in enlisting the military’s (and, frequently, the judiciary’s) backing in each of these. However, there are just as many instances of unsuccessful self-coup efforts. Yoon Suk Yeol, the chief of state of South Korea, made the most recent attempt.

On December 5 this year, the former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan was indicted by a court for “inciting violence against the military.” He is accused of doing this in 2023, which led to the infamous May 9/10 protests of that year, in which his supporters attacked multiple military buildings.

Soon, he was being accused by his detractors of trying to instigate a mutiny in the military against its chief, Gen. Asim Munir. Apparently, ‘the plan’ was to use unprecedented attacks on military properties to rouse the emotions of so-called ‘pro-Khan’ generals who were then expected to topple the ‘anti-Khan’ Gen Munir, dissolve the current government, and reinstate Khan as PM.

Can this be considered an attempted self-coup if it is proven? Both yes and no. First of all, Khan was ousted by a vote of no confidence in April 2022, ending his tenure as prime minister. He wasn’t the head of state at the time. Therefore, what he is being accused of cannot be considered a self-coup, at least on this account. When considering a self-coup, sitting leaders of state and administration recognize the value of enlisting military assistance. They will therefore never attempt to insult or assault them, particularly the military.

However, Khan immediately started to harshly criticize the military for deserting him and backing the “corrupt parties,” who had successfully arranged a no-confidence vote against him in the parliament following his overthrow in 2022. So, is it still possible to call his purported attempt to inspire military insurrection a self-coup? No, not on this account either.

Yet, there are several fundamental elements of a self-coup in what unfolded in May 2023. A leader was apparently turning to the military to restore him, despite the fact that he was not in power. Given his post-outbursts against the institution, this may seem odd, but Khan was extremely outspoken in saying that the majority of the military supported him. Therefore, it’s possible that he thought the institution had enough of his followers.

Many in the military supported Khan, according to Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, the former military chief and a key figure in the so-called “Imran Khan Project.” According to Kamran Bokhari, an analyst at the New Lines Institute for Strategy think tank in Washington, when Bajwa retired in late 2022, he left behind a highly split military, “many of whom were still rooting for Khan,” according to a 2022 story on the Al-Jazeera website.

Gen. Munir, Bajwa’s successor, skillfully marginalized and then expelled Khan’s followers from the organization for a full year following his appointment in November 2022. However, Khan was unable in his attempt to rally these uniformed followers in May 2023.

Khan also had the backing of the judiciary, which frequently stepped in to lessen the terrible effects of the May 2023 violence on Khan’s political future. Khan, however, believes that the military orchestrated the bloodshed. “A red flag operation,” he says.

Though they are still only accusations, claims that he attempted to incite a military rebellion appear to be more widely accepted by political pundits than his assertion that the violence in May 2023 was a red flag operation. Was it a self-coup, then, if he did attempt to incite a mutiny in an attempt to regain control?

During a self-coup, a civilian leader enlists the aid of influential state institutions to carry out his extra-constitutional schemes. However, Khan’s purported proposal must be interpreted as a partial self-coup attempt because he was not the current head of state.

The military will have to demonstrate that Khan was genuinely trying to incite a rebellion with help from his sympathizers within the armed services. If proven, then this can be explained as a ‘conspiracy’ authored by a civilian leader, in concert with some senior military officers, to oust a sitting military chief: a self-coup attempt, but one in which the civilian leader was not in power yet enjoyed support in vital state institutions, and a civilian support base willing to enact unprecedented acts of incivism.